Haugesund 1-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 37%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 63% | Bodo/Glimt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.27 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.955 / defence 1.021 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.988 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.234. Data: 37 Haugesund games / 36 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 37% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 36%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Bodo/Glimt 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 37% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Haugesund 1.27 / Bodo/Glimt 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.955 / def 1.021 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.988 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bodo/Glimt xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Haugesund 1 - 4 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 37% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.72
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.51
1.24
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.24 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 14D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.40 PPG from 60 outings (44W 12D 4L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.17 points per game from 30 outings (19W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 44W 12D 4L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.60 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Bodo/Glimt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Haugesund and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Haugesund's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 1-4 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.27 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.24 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Bodo/Glimt attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 37% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 36%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Bodo/Glimt 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.