Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.40 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Haugesund's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 2–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 45% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 47% | Bodo/Glimt 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.89 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.603 / defence 1.209 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.946 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.447. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Haugesund games / 37 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 20% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 56%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Bodo/Glimt 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 20% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Haugesund 0.89 / Bodo/Glimt 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.603 / def 1.209 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.946 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Haugesund 0 - 4 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 20% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (8 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 6W.
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.60x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
20%
4.99
24%
4.10
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.54
1.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.99
20%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
4%
26.10
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.66 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 13D 29L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.20 PPG from 60 outings (40W 12D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 13W 3D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.00 points per game from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.48 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 40%, Bodo/Glimt 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Haugesund) and 60% (Bodo/Glimt).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 33%; Haugesund have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Haugesund's recent matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Haugesund's recent games and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 0-4 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.89 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.66 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.60 / defence 1.21 against Bodo/Glimt attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 20% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 56%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 47%, Bodo/Glimt 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.