Ham-Kam 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 11 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Viking have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Ham-Kam, 0.80 for Viking — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ham-Kam 0W, Viking 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 71% and Viking 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | Viking 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.39 xG and Viking 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.660 / defence 0.868 | Viking attack 1.064 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.345. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Ham-Kam games / 51 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 26% | Viking 33%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 26% | Viking 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Ham-Kam 1.39 / Viking 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.660 / def 0.868 | Viking attack 1.064 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Viking xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Viking kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Ham-Kam 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Viking part of?
Ham-Kam vs Viking is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 40% chance of winning, Viking a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ham-Kam and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.06x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.83
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.63
1.24
Viking xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.24 for Viking, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 4W 11D 6L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking's form line: 8W 5D 8L from 21 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.38 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
On the road, Viking have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.67 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Viking in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 4W 11D 6L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Viking have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Viking away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.27 PPG; Viking away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 7-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 46%, Viking 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ham-Kam) and 73% (Viking).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Ham-Kam's games and 82% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 73% of Viking's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Viking tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Viking in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Ham-Kam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Ham-Kam 1-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.39 xG and Viking 1.24 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.66 / defence 0.87 against Viking attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 26% | Viking 33%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Viking 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, Viking 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.