Brann 2-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KFUM Oslo make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 7W 1D 2L at Brann Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
KFUM Oslo's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Brann. A 0.80 PPG lead over KFUM Oslo (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Brann, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 62% and KFUM Oslo 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 68% | KFUM Oslo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.12 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.961 / defence 1.044 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.982 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.125. KFUM Oslo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Brann games / 38 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 59% | Draw 21% | KFUM Oslo 20%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | KFUM Oslo 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Brann (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 59% | Draw 21% | KFUM Oslo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Brann 2.12 / KFUM Oslo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.961 / def 1.044 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.982 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Brann (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.15
KFUM Oslo xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Brann vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Brann 2 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Brann vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Brann vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 59% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Brann and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
Record (4 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 2 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Brann and KFUM Oslo in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.96) and KFUM Oslo's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.98x) against Brann's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.87
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Brann xG
Total xG
3.27
1.15
KFUM Oslo xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
41.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Brann and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Brann and 1.15 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 13D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (17W 21D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 22L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Brann's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.10 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Brann 2-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 63%, KFUM Oslo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Brann) and 40% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play KFUM Oslo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Brann's games and 50% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Brann's recent games and 40% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out KFUM Oslo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.12 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.15 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.98 / defence 1.33, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 59% | Draw 21% | KFUM Oslo 20%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, KFUM Oslo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.