Bodo/Glimt vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Viking have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Viking away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.60 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 61% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Viking 76%). Note also that Viking surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.68 xG and Viking 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.111 / defence 0.854 | Viking attack 1.215 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.219. Viking have an above-average attack rating of 1.215, which lifts their away xG to 1.26. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 54 games and Viking's last 54.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 45% | Draw 29% | Viking 26%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.24 | Draw 3.46 | Viking 3.79. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Viking 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 45% | Draw 29% | Viking 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.68 / Viking 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.111 / def 0.854 | Viking attack 1.215 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Viking xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 45% chance of winning, Viking a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.11x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.22x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 54 games and Viking's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.46
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.95
1.26
Viking xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.26 for Viking, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 54 games, going 41W 9D 4L for 2.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.63 PPG from 54 outings (25W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Viking — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 23W 3D 1L across their last 27 home games, a 2.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.37 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.81 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.91 scored and 1.72 conceded. Viking's attacking output running into Bodo/Glimt's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Viking in 69%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Viking
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 41W 9D 4L in their last 54 games (2.44 PPG), while Viking have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Viking away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.67 PPG; Viking away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Viking in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, Viking have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 56%, Viking 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Bodo/Glimt and 74% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Viking in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 59% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 74% of Viking's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 85% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Viking finished level at 0-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.68 xG and Viking 1.26 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Viking attack 1.22 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 45% | Draw 29% | Viking 26%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 72%, Viking 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Viking's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.