Bodo/Glimt 7-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Valerenga to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 3W 1D 4L from 8 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bodo/Glimt have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Valerenga have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 4–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 47% versus Valerenga 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Valerenga 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.77 xG and Valerenga 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.352 / defence 0.834 | Valerenga attack 0.766 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.349. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Bodo/Glimt games / 15 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 23% | Valerenga 18%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Valerenga 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Valerenga 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 23% | Valerenga 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.77 / Valerenga 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.352 / def 0.834 | Valerenga attack 0.766 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Valerenga xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt 7 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 59% chance of winning, Valerenga a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Record (8 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 6W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.27
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.64
0.86
Valerenga xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
33.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.86 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 10W 2D 3L from 15 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 7L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 6W 0D 2L from 8 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 10W 2D 3L in their last 15 games (2.13 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Valerenga away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.25 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Valerenga in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Valerenga have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 38%, Valerenga 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 88% (Bodo/Glimt) and 25% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Valerenga in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 38% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 25% of Valerenga's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 7-2 hammering of Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Valerenga 7-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.77 xG and Valerenga 0.86 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 5.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valerenga outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.35 / defence 0.83 against Valerenga attack 0.77 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 23% | Valerenga 18%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 73%, Valerenga 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.