Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bodo/Glimt stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bodo/Glimt have won 1, Stromsgodset 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 58% versus Stromsgodset 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 70% | Stromsgodset 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.15 xG and Stromsgodset 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.206 / defence 0.931 | Stromsgodset attack 0.897 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.303. Stromsgodset's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Bodo/Glimt games / 38 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 37% | Draw 30% | Stromsgodset 34%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Stromsgodset 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Stromsgodset 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 37% | Draw 30% | Stromsgodset 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.15 / Stromsgodset 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.206 / def 0.931 | Stromsgodset attack 0.897 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Stromsgodset xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 25 May 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 37% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.21) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.38
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.24
1.09
Stromsgodset xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.09 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 44W 12D 4L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 16W 19D 25L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.63 PPG from 30 outings (25W 4D 1L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 9D 16L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 44W 12D 4L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Stromsgodset away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.63 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 53%, Stromsgodset 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 57% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.15 xG and Stromsgodset 1.09 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.21 / defence 0.93 against Stromsgodset attack 0.90 / defence 0.66, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 37% | Draw 30% | Stromsgodset 34%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 70%, Stromsgodset 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.