Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 79%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Fredrikstad and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 56% versus Fredrikstad 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 59% | Fredrikstad 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.93 xG and Fredrikstad 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.637 / defence 0.910 | Fredrikstad attack 0.771 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.256. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.637 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Bodo/Glimt games / 27 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Fredrikstad 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Fredrikstad 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Fredrikstad 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Fredrikstad 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 55% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.93 / Fredrikstad 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.637 / def 0.910 | Fredrikstad attack 0.771 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fredrikstad xG
55%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 Fredrikstad.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 79% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 8% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Fredrikstad (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.64x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.93. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.77x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
79%
1.27
13%
7.79
8%
12.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.82
0.88
Fredrikstad xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.79
13%
Draw
12.14
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
5%
18.80
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.88 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 27 games, going 16W 7D 4L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 9W 3D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.54 points per game from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.30 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Fredrikstad in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 16W 7D 4L in their last 27 games (2.04 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 12W 8D 7L in their last 27 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Fredrikstad away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.31 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, Fredrikstad 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Bodo/Glimt) and 38% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 38% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Bodo/Glimt's recent games and 38% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad finished level at 2-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.93 xG and Fredrikstad 0.88 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.64 / defence 0.91 against Fredrikstad attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Fredrikstad 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 79%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 59%, Fredrikstad 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.