Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brann have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Brann have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.50 PPG lead over Brann (2.40 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 2–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Brann — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 59% and Brann 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 69% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.01 xG and Brann 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.057 / defence 0.705 | Brann attack 1.055 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Bodo/Glimt games / 58 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 26% | Brann 14%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 26% | Brann 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.01 / Brann 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.057 / def 0.705 | Brann attack 1.055 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Brann xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 Brann.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 60% chance of winning, Brann a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Record (2 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.06) and Brann's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.05x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.88
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.93
0.92
Brann xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
2%
54.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.92 for Brann, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.41 PPG on a 43W 11D 4L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 13W 19D 26L from 58 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.69 PPG from 29 outings (25W 3D 1L).
On the road, Brann have gone 6W 9D 14L from 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.28 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 71%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 43W 11D 4L in their last 58 games (2.41 PPG), while Brann have gone 13W 19D 26L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Brann away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.69 PPG; Brann away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Brann in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
2
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, Brann have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Brann 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Bodo/Glimt and 55% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Brann in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 62% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 55% of Brann's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Brann tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Brann in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Brann share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Brann finished level at 2-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.01 xG and Brann 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Brann outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.06 / defence 0.70 against Brann attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 26% | Brann 14%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 69%, Brann 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.