Willem II 0-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Twente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Twente make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Eredivisie appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Twente (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Twente have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Twente are 1.90 PPG clear of Willem II in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.00 vs 0.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Twente — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 53% and Twente 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 63% | Twente 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 0.94 xG and Twente 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.678 / defence 1.328 | Twente attack 1.038 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.339. Willem II's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Twente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Willem II games / 19 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 19% | Draw 23% | Twente 58%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Twente 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Twente (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 44% | Twente 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 19% | Draw 23% | Twente 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Willem II 0.94 / Twente 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.678 / def 1.328 | Twente attack 1.038 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Twente (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Twente xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Twente kick off?
Willem II vs Twente kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Twente?
Willem II 0 - 1 Twente.
Where is Willem II vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Twente part of?
Willem II vs Twente is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 19% chance of winning, Twente a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Willem II and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Twente?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Twente 0W.
What form are Willem II and Twente in?
Willem II (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Twente (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.68x the league average against Twente's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Twente's attack (1.04x) against Willem II's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
19%
5.34
23%
4.38
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.79
1.84
Twente xG
5.34
19%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
3%
33.79
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Willem II and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Willem II and 1.84 for Twente, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Twente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Willem II have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 5W 3D 11L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente's form line: 10W 5D 4L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Twente are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, Twente have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.58 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Twente in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Twente in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 5W 3D 11L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Twente have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Twente away?
Twente's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.11 PPG; Twente away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Twente have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won 6-2 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
1
Draws
3
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Twente?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Twente have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Twente 6-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 44%, Twente 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Willem II) and 56% (Twente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Willem II's games and 78% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Willem II's matches and 56% of Twente's.
Do Willem II and Twente tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Twente in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Twente edge out Willem II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 0.94 xG and Twente 1.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Twente landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.68 / defence 1.33 against Twente attack 1.04 / defence 1.28, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 19% | Draw 23% | Twente 58%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 63%, Twente 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Twente's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Twente (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.