Willem II 1-2 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Willem II face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Ajax at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Willem II stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home, Willem II have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ajax have recorded 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajax — 2.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Ajax have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Willem II. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Willem II 0–1 Ajax — a Ajax win.
Ajax have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Ajax trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 58% and Ajax 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Ajax 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 0.64 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.729 / defence 1.334 | Ajax attack 1.157 / defence 0.547. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.302. Willem II's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Ajax bring a tight defence (rating 0.547, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Willem II's projected output down. Willem II's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ajax's projected output up. Data: built from Willem II's last 28 games and Ajax's last 62.
Result probabilities: Willem II 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 69%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 9.69 | Draw 4.89 | Ajax 1.44. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (69%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajax 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 29 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Willem II 0.64 / Ajax 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.729 / def 1.334 | Ajax attack 1.157 / def 0.547 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Ajax (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Ajax xG
41%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Ajax FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Ajax kick off?
Willem II vs Ajax kicked off at 16:45 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Ajax?
Willem II 1 - 2 Ajax.
Where is Willem II vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Ajax part of?
Willem II vs Ajax is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 10% chance of winning, Ajax a 69% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Willem II and Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Willem II vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.73x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 28 games and Ajax's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
10%
9.69
20%
4.89
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.65
2.01
Ajax xG
9.69
10%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
1%
72.32
37%
2.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Willem II and 2.01 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II's recent record stands at 28W 14D 20L from 62 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 37W 15D 10L across 62 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajax by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 16W 6D 9L from their last 31 home games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajax's away record stands at 16W 7D 8L across their last 31 away games, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 63%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Ajax
Current Season
Willem II (Home) vs Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Current Season
Ajax
Current Season
❓ Willem II vs Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Ajax in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 28W 14D 20L in their last 62 games (1.58 PPG), while Ajax have gone 37W 15D 10L in their last 62 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.74 PPG; Ajax away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Willem II or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ajax in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ajax have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Dec 2021, when Ajax won Ajax 5-0 Willem II.
Willem II's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Willem II
0
Draws
5
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Ajax?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 0, Ajax have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Ajax 5-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 64%, Ajax 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Willem II and 64% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Willem II's games and 64% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Willem II's matches and 64% of Ajax's.
Do Willem II and Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Willem II's recent matches and 68% of Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 0.64 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Ajax attack 1.16 / defence 0.55, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 69%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Ajax 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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