Waalwijk 3-1 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host GO Ahead Eagles at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, GO Ahead Eagles have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 1.20 PPG versus GO Ahead Eagles's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for GO Ahead Eagles and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 64% versus GO Ahead Eagles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 54% | GO Ahead Eagles 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.51 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.127 / defence 0.926 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.997 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.266. Data: 52 Waalwijk games / 52 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 30% | GO Ahead Eagles 27%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | GO Ahead Eagles 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | GO Ahead Eagles 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 30% | GO Ahead Eagles 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Waalwijk 1.51 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.127 / def 0.926 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.997 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
GO Ahead Eagles xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Waalwijk 3 - 1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 43% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 1 | GO Ahead Eagles 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.13x the league average against GO Ahead Eagles's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GO Ahead Eagles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.33
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.68
1.17
GO Ahead Eagles xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.17 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 18D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GO Ahead Eagles sit at 1.06 PPG from 52 outings (14W 13D 25L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.15 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waalwijk's home form reads 9W 6D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, GO Ahead Eagles have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.21 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 14W 13D 25L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.32 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waalwijk's record when hosting GO Ahead Eagles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
4
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Waalwijk 5-3 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 60%, GO Ahead Eagles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Waalwijk) and 32% (GO Ahead Eagles).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 28% of games; GO Ahead Eagles in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play GO Ahead Eagles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 44% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Waalwijk's recent games and 32% of GO Ahead Eagles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and GO Ahead Eagles tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, GO Ahead Eagles in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat GO Ahead Eagles 3-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.51 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.17 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.13 / defence 0.93 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 43% | Draw 30% | GO Ahead Eagles 27%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 54%, GO Ahead Eagles 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.15 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.