Utrecht 1-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Vitesse travel to Stadion Galgenwaard to take on Utrecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Vitesse have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Utrecht 1.20 PPG, Vitesse 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Utrecht, 1 for Vitesse and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Utrecht trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Vitesse trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 54% versus Vitesse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Utrecht 68% | Vitesse 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.57 xG and Vitesse 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.186 / defence 1.141 | Vitesse attack 0.906 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.384. Data: 22 Utrecht games / 22 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 41% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 35%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Vitesse 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 70% | Vitesse 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 41% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Utrecht 1.57 / Vitesse 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.186 / def 1.141 | Vitesse attack 0.906 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Vitesse xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Vitesse kick off?
Utrecht vs Vitesse kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Utrecht 1 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Utrecht vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Vitesse part of?
Utrecht vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, Vitesse a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Utrecht and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Vitesse in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 1.19x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
41%
2.44
24%
4.13
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.00
1.43
Vitesse xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.43 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utrecht's recent record stands at 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 8L across 22 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.59 PPG, Vitesse on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 1D 3L across 11 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Utrecht are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.23 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 11W 3D 8L in their last 22 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Vitesse away?
Utrecht's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.18 PPG; Vitesse away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vitesse in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utrecht and Vitesse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Vitesse won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utrecht
2
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Vitesse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Utrecht 1-0 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 64%, Vitesse 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Utrecht and 54% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 36%; Vitesse in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Utrecht's recent matches and 36% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Utrecht's matches and 54% of Vitesse's.
Do Utrecht and Vitesse tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht and Vitesse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 23, as Utrecht and Vitesse drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.57 xG and Vitesse 1.43 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.19 / defence 1.14 against Vitesse attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 41% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 35%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 68%, Vitesse 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.59 PPG, Vitesse 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.