Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 3W 4D 3L at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel than their overall form suggests.
Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sparta Rotterdam have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Willem II have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 4–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Rotterdam and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Willem II trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 47% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 55% | Willem II 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 2.11 xG and Willem II 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.951 / defence 0.977 | Willem II attack 0.801 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Sparta Rotterdam games / 3 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 52% | Draw 22% | Willem II 26%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 3.85. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Sparta Rotterdam dominate the H2H record, yet Willem II are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Willem II 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 52% | Draw 22% | Willem II 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 2.11 / Willem II 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.951 / def 0.977 | Willem II attack 0.801 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Willem II xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 52% chance of winning, Willem II a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 4W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.56
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.58
1.47
Willem II xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
3%
31.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.47 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 11L across 38 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 11W 2D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.58 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.17 PPG; Willem II away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, Willem II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 44%, Willem II 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 67% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 39%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 56% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 67% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Willem II in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.