Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 56%, yet in-form NEC Nijmegen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host NEC Nijmegen at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. NEC Nijmegen's 1.75 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Sparta Rotterdam's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sparta Rotterdam 50% | NEC Nijmegen 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sparta Rotterdam 50% | NEC Nijmegen 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.77 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.105 / defence 1.117 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.734 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.176. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Sparta Rotterdam games / 4 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 20%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | NEC Nijmegen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NEC Nijmegen (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | NEC Nijmegen 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.77 / NEC Nijmegen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.105 / def 1.117 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.734 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.96
NEC Nijmegen xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 56% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 1.10x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.29
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
3%
28.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.96 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 0%.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Sparta Rotterdam or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
6
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sparta Rotterdam 50% BTTS, NEC Nijmegen 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 25% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 75%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 50% of games; NEC Nijmegen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 0% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 25% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 5, as Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.77 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 20%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 50%, NEC Nijmegen 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Rotterdam conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.