Roda 0-5 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 42%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host NAC Breda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Roda have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Roda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. NAC Breda's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Roda's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Roda have won 2, NAC Breda 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2024, ended 1–3 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 62% and NAC Breda 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 54% | NAC Breda 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.69 xG and NAC Breda 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Data: 0 Roda games / 0 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 42% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 42% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Roda 1.69 / NAC Breda 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.44
NAC Breda xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs NAC Breda kick off?
Roda vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Roda 0 - 5 NAC Breda.
Where is Roda vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs NAC Breda part of?
Roda vs NAC Breda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 42% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Roda and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
Record (7 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 3W.
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in?
Roda (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.85x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.80
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Roda xG
Total xG
3.13
1.44
NAC Breda xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Roda and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Roda and 1.44 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 12W 7D 20L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 16L across 39 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Roda heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 7W 4D 8L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 8W 2D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.72 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 72%.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 12W 7D 20L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 18W 5D 16L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.32 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and NAC Breda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Roda
2
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, NAC Breda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 68%, NAC Breda at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Roda and 79% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Roda's games and 74% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Roda's matches and 79% of NAC Breda's.
Do Roda and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Roda 0-5 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.69 xG and NAC Breda 1.44 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Roda fell 1.7 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 1.44 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 42% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 32%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, NAC Breda 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.