PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to Philips Stadion to face PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PSV Eindhoven haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion.
Waalwijk have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward PSV Eindhoven. A 1.40 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.50 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, PSV Eindhoven have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 6 meetings, with Waalwijk managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 3–1 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 47% versus Waalwijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PSV Eindhoven 71% | Waalwijk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.34 xG and Waalwijk 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.342 / defence 0.868 | Waalwijk attack 1.015 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.471. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 PSV Eindhoven games / 34 Waalwijk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 60% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 19%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Waalwijk 5.26. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 50% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 60% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.34 / Waalwijk 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.342 / def 0.868 | Waalwijk attack 1.015 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Waalwijk xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
PSV Eindhoven 5 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 60% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
Record (6 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 6W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.01x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.78
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.64
1.30
Waalwijk xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
10%
10.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
2%
54.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.30 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 34 games, going 29W 4D 1L for 2.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. PSV Eindhoven haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.85 PPG from 34 outings (7W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. Waalwijk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.83 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 16W 1D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.65 points per game from 17 outings (3W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.26 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.12 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Pre-Season
Waalwijk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 29W 4D 1L in their last 34 games (2.68 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 19L in their last 34 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Waalwijk away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.88 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.65 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, Waalwijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Waalwijk 0-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 47%, Waalwijk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for PSV Eindhoven and 53% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Waalwijk in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 47% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 53% of Waalwijk's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 5-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.34 xG and Waalwijk 1.30 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.34 / defence 0.87 against Waalwijk attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 60% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 19%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 71%, Waalwijk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.68 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.18 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.