PSV Eindhoven 2-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Philips Stadion to face PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Philips Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.50 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Philips Stadion this season.
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 2.40 in PSV Eindhoven's favour (3.00 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 68% and NAC Breda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 83% | NAC Breda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.54 xG and NAC Breda 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.575 / defence 1.098 | NAC Breda attack 0.708 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.452. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.575 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 PSV Eindhoven games / 53 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 68% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 15%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | NAC Breda 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 80% | NAC Breda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 68% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 62% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.54 / NAC Breda 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.575 / def 1.098 | NAC Breda attack 0.708 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.13
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
PSV Eindhoven 2 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 68% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 3W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PSV Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.54. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.71x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.84
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.67
1.13
NAC Breda xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
8%
12.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
1%
84.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.13 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 53 games, going 42W 5D 6L for 2.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.89 PPG from 53 outings (11W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.58 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 20W 4D 2L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.46 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.46 points per game from 26 outings (2W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.06 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.00 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 42W 5D 6L in their last 53 games (2.47 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 11W 14D 28L in their last 53 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or NAC Breda away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.46 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-3 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PSV Eindhoven
1
Draws
0
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, NAC Breda have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 65%, NAC Breda 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for PSV Eindhoven and 54% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 46% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 54% of NAC Breda's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda finished level at 2-2 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.54 xG and NAC Breda 1.13 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.57 / defence 1.10 against NAC Breda attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 68% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 15%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, NAC Breda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.