PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Heerenveen travel to Philips Stadion to take on PSV Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Philips Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, PSV Eindhoven have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for Heerenveen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 64% versus Heerenveen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PSV Eindhoven 77% | Heerenveen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 1.80 xG and Heerenveen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.378 / defence 1.121 | Heerenveen attack 0.619 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.384. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 PSV Eindhoven games / 22 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 57% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 20%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Heerenveen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 70% | Heerenveen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 57% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG PSV Eindhoven 1.80 / Heerenveen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.378 / def 1.121 | Heerenveen attack 0.619 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Heerenveen xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 57% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen?
Record (1 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 0W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.38x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.35
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.76
0.96
Heerenveen xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
30.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.96 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 22 games, going 16W 1D 5L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 7W 0D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 0.91 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 16W 1D 5L in their last 22 games (2.23 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Heerenveen away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.10 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2024, when PSV Eindhoven won 0-8 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
2
Draws
1
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, Heerenveen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 70%, Heerenveen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (PSV Eindhoven) and 30% (Heerenveen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 50% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 30% of Heerenveen's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Heerenveen 3-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 1.80 xG and Heerenveen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.38 / defence 1.12 against Heerenveen attack 0.62 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 57% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 20%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 77%, Heerenveen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Heerenveen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.