PSV Eindhoven 0-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to Philips Stadion to face PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. PSV Eindhoven's 3.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Feyenoord's 2.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 67% versus Feyenoord 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 100% | Feyenoord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.11 xG and Feyenoord 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.430 / defence 1.256 | Feyenoord attack 1.130 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.096. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 PSV Eindhoven games / 3 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 51% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 28%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Feyenoord 3.57. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PSV Eindhoven 50% | Feyenoord 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 51% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.11 / Feyenoord 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.430 / def 1.256 | Feyenoord attack 1.130 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Feyenoord xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
PSV Eindhoven 0 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 51% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.43x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.13x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
51%
1.98
21%
4.77
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.67
1.55
Feyenoord xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
3%
28.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.55 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 3 games, going 3W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. PSV Eindhoven's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PSV Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 6, Feyenoord have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 67%, Feyenoord 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for PSV Eindhoven and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Feyenoord in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 33% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-4 hammering of PSV Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat PSV Eindhoven 0-4 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.11 xG and Feyenoord 1.55 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.43 / defence 1.26 against Feyenoord attack 1.13 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 51% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 28%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Feyenoord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 100%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Feyenoord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PSV Eindhoven managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.