PEC Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Sparta Rotterdam.

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Fixture Analysis

PEC Zwolle welcome Sparta Rotterdam to MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

PEC Zwolle — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 1.20 PPG versus Sparta Rotterdam's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2024, ended PEC Zwolle 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam — a PEC Zwolle win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 64% and Sparta Rotterdam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Sparta Rotterdam 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.991 / defence 1.190 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.917 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.251. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 47 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 47.

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 35%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.48 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 80% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 70% (last 10 away games).

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