PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as PEC Zwolle welcome Heracles to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 1D 8L from 9 outings — a 0.11 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 0W 1D 3L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 1D 4L from 8 Eredivisie matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.25 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heracles — 1.14 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.25 vs 0.11). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
Heracles trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 38% versus Heracles 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PEC Zwolle 25% | Heracles 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.15 xG and Heracles 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.590 / defence 1.121 | Heracles attack 0.848 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.406. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.590 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 PEC Zwolle games / 8 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 32% | Draw 27% | Heracles 41%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Heracles 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 25% | Heracles 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 32% | Draw 27% | Heracles 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.15 / Heracles 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.590 / def 1.121 | Heracles attack 0.848 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Heracles (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Heracles xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 Heracles.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 32% chance of winning, Heracles a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.59) and Heracles's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.72
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.49
1.34
Heracles xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.34 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 1D 7L for 0.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 1D 7L in their last 8 games (0.12 PPG), while Heracles have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heracles away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.33 PPG; Heracles away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Heracles runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
4
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
From 10 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 6, Heracles have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — PEC Zwolle at 33%, Heracles at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PEC Zwolle and 67% for Heracles.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of PEC Zwolle's games and 100% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 67% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heracles tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Heracles in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat Heracles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 1-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.15 xG and Heracles 1.34 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Heracles landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.59 / defence 1.12 against Heracles attack 0.85 / defence 1.47, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 32% | Draw 27% | Heracles 41%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 25%, Heracles 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.12. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.