PEC Zwolle 3-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 4 as PEC Zwolle welcome Heracles to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 3W 2D 5L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 0.80 PPG versus Heracles's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 4, Heracles 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Heracles trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 65% versus Heracles 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Heracles 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and Heracles 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.935 / defence 1.406 | Heracles attack 0.780 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.364. Data: 37 PEC Zwolle games / 37 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 30% | Heracles 37%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Heracles 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 30% | Heracles 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.40 / Heracles 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.935 / def 1.406 | Heracles attack 0.780 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Heracles (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Heracles xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 0 Heracles.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 33% chance of winning, Heracles a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
Record (6 meetings): PEC Zwolle 4W | Draws 0 | Heracles 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.94) and Heracles's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.32
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.89
1.50
Heracles xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.50 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 9D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.95 PPG from 37 outings (9W 8D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 0.97 PPG, Heracles on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 5W 3D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L).
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.16 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 8D 20L in their last 37 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heracles away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.00 PPG; Heracles away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Heracles runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
4
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
From 10 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 6, Heracles have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 67%, Heracles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for PEC Zwolle and 67% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of PEC Zwolle's games and 44% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 67% of Heracles's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heracles tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Heracles in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 3-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and Heracles 1.50 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.94 / defence 1.41 against Heracles attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 30% | Heracles 37%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, Heracles 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 0.97 PPG, Heracles 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.