PEC Zwolle 2-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 38%, yet in-form Heerenveen provide a compelling counter-argument — this PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Heerenveen travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 4W 3D 3L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heerenveen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heerenveen — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 2 for Heerenveen and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Heerenveen trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 55% versus Heerenveen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 49% | Heerenveen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.30 xG and Heerenveen 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.733 / defence 0.983 | Heerenveen attack 0.873 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.474. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 PEC Zwolle games / 47 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 38% | Draw 27% | Heerenveen 36%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Heerenveen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heerenveen (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 30% | Heerenveen 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 38% | Draw 27% | Heerenveen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.30 / Heerenveen 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.733 / def 0.983 | Heerenveen attack 0.873 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Heerenveen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 November 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 38% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen?
Record (6 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 3 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.73x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.76
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.57
1.26
Heerenveen xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.26 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 15D 19L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.28 PPG from 47 outings (16W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.15 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 0.52 points per game from 23 outings (3W 3D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.38 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heerenveen away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.39 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen?
From 9 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Heerenveen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 44%, Heerenveen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (PEC Zwolle) and 65% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 26% of games; Heerenveen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 56% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 65% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Heerenveen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heerenveen 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.30 xG and Heerenveen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against Heerenveen attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 38% | Draw 27% | Heerenveen 36%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 49%, Heerenveen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.15 PPG, Heerenveen 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.