NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Cambuur travel to Goffertstadion to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 2W 2D 2L at Goffertstadion — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goffertstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 3W 0D 3L from 6 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cambuur are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cambuur in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 46% versus Cambuur 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 46% | Cambuur 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.46 xG and Cambuur 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.782 / defence 1.020 | Cambuur attack 0.843 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.350. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 NEC Nijmegen games / 13 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 44% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 30%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: NEC Nijmegen 17% | Cambuur 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 44% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.46 / Cambuur 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.782 / def 1.020 | Cambuur attack 0.843 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cambuur xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 3 Cambuur.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 44% chance of winning, Cambuur a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.86
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.62
1.16
Cambuur xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.16 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 4D 4L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (7W 0D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.46 PPG, Cambuur on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.77 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 7W 0D 6L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.33 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.50 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cambuur in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — NEC Nijmegen 17% BTTS, Cambuur 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (NEC Nijmegen) and 67% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cambuur in 33%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 50% of games; Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 33% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 67% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.46 xG and Cambuur 1.16 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Cambuur attack 0.84 / defence 1.45, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 44% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 30%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 46%, Cambuur 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.46 PPG, Cambuur 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.