NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 3W 1D 6L at Goffertstadion — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.30 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almere City FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 52% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 48% | Almere City FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.20 xG and Almere City FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.227 / defence 1.200 | Almere City FC attack 0.789 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.406. Data: 42 NEC Nijmegen games / 8 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 57% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 22%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 57% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.20 / Almere City FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.227 / def 1.200 | Almere City FC attack 0.789 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Almere City FC xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 57% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.23) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.79x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.63
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.53
1.33
Almere City FC xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
2%
41.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.33 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 17D 15L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 42 outings (21W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 5W 9D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.81 points per game from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 17D 15L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.14 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.81 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 71%, Almere City FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (NEC Nijmegen) and 33% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 43% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 33% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 9, as NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.20 xG and Almere City FC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.23 / defence 1.20 against Almere City FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 57% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 22%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 48%, Almere City FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.