NAC Breda 1-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utrecht make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.80 for Utrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Utrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 71% and Utrecht 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 63% | Utrecht 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.43 xG and Utrecht 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.914 / defence 1.047 | Utrecht attack 0.969 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.400. Data: 2 NAC Breda games / 36 Utrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 37%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Utrecht 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG NAC Breda 1.43 / Utrecht 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.914 / def 1.047 | Utrecht attack 0.969 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Utrecht xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Utrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Utrecht?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Utrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 37% chance of winning, Utrecht a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NAC Breda and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Utrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Utrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.91x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.97x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.80
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.85
1.42
Utrecht xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.42 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 18W 10D 10L from 38 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 11L across 38 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.50 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utrecht's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Utrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Utrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.67 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 0, Utrecht have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Utrecht 2-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 72%, Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (NAC Breda) and 39% (Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of NAC Breda's games and 50% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of NAC Breda's recent games and 39% of Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Utrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utrecht defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.43 xG and Utrecht 1.42 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Utrecht attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 37%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 63%, Utrecht 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.68 PPG, Utrecht 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.