NAC Breda 1-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 38%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in NAC Breda's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 68% versus Fortuna Sittard 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 62% | Fortuna Sittard 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.28 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.876 / defence 1.132 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.970 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.312. Data: 4 NAC Breda games / 37 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 38%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Fortuna Sittard 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 80% | Fortuna Sittard 20%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG NAC Breda 1.28 / Fortuna Sittard 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.876 / def 1.132 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.970 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Fortuna Sittard xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 30% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.97x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 4/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
30%
3.32
32%
3.10
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.72
1.44
Fortuna Sittard xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.44 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 15W 10D 12L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 11W 11D 15L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.19 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.14 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.61 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
1
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 72%, Fortuna Sittard 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (NAC Breda) and 56% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 33%; Fortuna Sittard in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 28% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of NAC Breda's matches and 56% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Fortuna Sittard 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Fortuna Sittard 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.28 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.44 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 30% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 38%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 62%, Fortuna Sittard 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.49 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.