Heracles 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Heracles welcome Waalwijk to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Erve Asito this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.83. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 0.80 PPG versus Waalwijk's 0.83. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 60% and Waalwijk 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 40% | Waalwijk 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.41 xG and Waalwijk 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.806 / defence 1.186 | Waalwijk attack 0.959 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.463. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Heracles games / 6 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 33% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 44%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 33% | Waalwijk 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 33% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Heracles 1.41 / Waalwijk 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.806 / def 1.186 | Waalwijk attack 0.959 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Waalwijk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heracles vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Heracles 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Heracles vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Waalwijk part of?
Heracles vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 33% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Heracles and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
33%
3.06
24%
4.21
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.08
1.66
Waalwijk xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.18
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Heracles and 1.66 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Waalwijk away?
Heracles's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.00 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heracles at 33%, Waalwijk at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Heracles and 100% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Heracles's games and 100% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Heracles's matches and 100% of Waalwijk's.
Do Heracles and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.41 xG and Waalwijk 1.66 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Waalwijk attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 33% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 44%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 40%, Waalwijk 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.