Groningen 1-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Utrecht travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Utrecht — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 1.20 PPG, Utrecht 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Groningen, 4 for Utrecht and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus Utrecht 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 48% | Utrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.33 xG and Utrecht 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.857 / defence 0.901 | Utrecht attack 0.987 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.443. Data: 56 Groningen games / 56 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Utrecht 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 40% | Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Groningen 1.33 / Utrecht 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.857 / def 0.901 | Utrecht attack 0.987 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Utrecht xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Utrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Groningen 1 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Utrecht part of?
Groningen vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 38% chance of winning, Utrecht a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Groningen and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Groningen 2W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 4W.
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Utrecht (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.86x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.80
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.61
1.28
Utrecht xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Groningen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Groningen and 1.28 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 13D 24L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 25W 16D 15L from 56 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.25 PPG, Utrecht on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (12W 9D 7L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 11W 11D 6L from 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.70 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 25W 16D 15L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Utrecht away?
Groningen's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.61 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Utrecht runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Groningen
1
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
From 9 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Utrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Groningen 2-1 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 46%, Utrecht 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Groningen) and 64% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Groningen's games and 79% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Groningen's matches and 64% of Utrecht's.
Do Groningen and Utrecht tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utrecht defy the odds to beat Groningen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Groningen 1-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.33 xG and Utrecht 1.28 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Utrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 38% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 36%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 48%, Utrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.25 PPG, Utrecht 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.