Groningen 1-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Fortuna Sittard at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Groningen, 4 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus Fortuna Sittard 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 47% | Fortuna Sittard 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.65 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.911 / defence 0.789 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.903 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.444. Groningen's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Groningen games / 53 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 52% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 24%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 4.17. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 40% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 52% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Groningen 1.65 / Fortuna Sittard 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.911 / def 0.789 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.903 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Groningen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fortuna Sittard xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Groningen 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 52% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Groningen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (7 meetings): Groningen 3W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 4W.
What form are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.91) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.07
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.67
1.03
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
21.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Groningen and 1.03 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 19W 13D 21L from 53 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 24L across 53 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.32 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 12W 9D 5L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Groningen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 9D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.23 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Groningen's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.73 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Groningen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Groningen
0
Draws
6
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 9 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 42%, Fortuna Sittard 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Groningen) and 50% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 31% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Groningen's recent matches and 65% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Groningen's recent games and 50% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Groningen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Groningen 1-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.65 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.03 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.91 / defence 0.79 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 52% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 24%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 47%, Fortuna Sittard 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.32 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.