Fortuna Sittard 0-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 3W 4D 3L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.30 for NEC Nijmegen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Sittard lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 42% versus NEC Nijmegen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 56% | NEC Nijmegen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.52 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.130 / defence 0.827 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.027 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.350. Data: 36 Fortuna Sittard games / 37 NEC Nijmegen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 31% | NEC Nijmegen 26%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | NEC Nijmegen 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 60% | NEC Nijmegen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 31% | NEC Nijmegen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.52 / NEC Nijmegen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.130 / def 0.827 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.027 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.15
NEC Nijmegen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Fortuna Sittard 0 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 43% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 3 | NEC Nijmegen 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 1.13x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.03x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.19
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.66
1.15
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.15 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 11W 11D 14L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 10L across 36 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.56 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 7W 6D 4L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 6W 7D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.86 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 15W 11D 10L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.59 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 4-1 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 53%, NEC Nijmegen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fortuna Sittard) and 65% (NEC Nijmegen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Fortuna Sittard 0-3 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.52 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.15 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.5 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 31% | NEC Nijmegen 26%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 56%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.22 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.