Fortuna Sittard 1-4 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 37%, yet in-form Fortuna Sittard provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as Fortuna Sittard welcome Cambuur to Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Sittard — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Sittard's home record at Fortuna Sittard Stadion: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Fortuna Sittard have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fortuna Sittard, 1 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 56% and Cambuur 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 64% | Cambuur 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.43 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.991 / defence 1.130 | Cambuur attack 0.858 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.472. Data: 36 Fortuna Sittard games / 36 Cambuur games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 36% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 37%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Cambuur 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Sittard (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 40% | Cambuur 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 36% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.43 / Cambuur 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.991 / def 1.130 | Cambuur attack 0.858 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cambuur xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 4 Cambuur.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 36% chance of winning, Cambuur a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.70
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.85
1.43
Cambuur xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.43 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 10W 5D 21L from 36 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 18L across 36 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 0.97 PPG, Cambuur on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 6W 2D 10L from 18 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.47 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 69%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 10W 5D 21L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 11W 7D 18L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.11 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 56%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Sittard and 61% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 50% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 61% of Cambuur's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Fortuna Sittard 1-4 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.43 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against Cambuur attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 36% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 37%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 64%, Cambuur 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 0.97 PPG, Cambuur 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.