Feyenoord 3-4 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Sparta Rotterdam at De Kuip in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at De Kuip: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Feyenoord are significantly better at De Kuip than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feyenoord at 1.40 PPG versus Sparta Rotterdam's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Feyenoord have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Sparta Rotterdam have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 4–0 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 62% versus Sparta Rotterdam 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 62% | Sparta Rotterdam 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.89 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.294 / defence 1.006 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.859 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.438. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Feyenoord games / 52 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 53% | Draw 22% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.00. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 53% | Draw 22% | Sparta Rotterdam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Feyenoord 1.89 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.294 / def 1.006 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.859 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord 3 - 4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 53% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (8 meetings): Feyenoord 6W | Draws 2 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.46
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.14
1.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
4%
26.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.24 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord come into this having played 52 games, going 31W 11D 10L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.25 PPG from 52 outings (17W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Feyenoord's home form reads 17W 3D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.13 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 31W 11D 10L in their last 52 games (2.00 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.16 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 60%, Sparta Rotterdam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Feyenoord) and 44% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 48% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Feyenoord's recent games and 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Feyenoord 3-4 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.89 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 1.01 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 53% | Draw 22% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.