FC Eindhoven 1-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Almere City FC at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Eindhoven haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Almere City FC haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Eindhoven at 1.70 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Almere City FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Almere City FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 58% versus Almere City FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 55% | Almere City FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.65 xG and Almere City FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Data: 0 FC Eindhoven games / 0 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Almere City FC 3.57. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.65 / Almere City FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Almere City FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 45% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.91
1.26
Almere City FC xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.26 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 8D 10L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. FC Eindhoven haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.08 PPG from 38 outings (11W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. Almere City FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 12W 3D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Pre-Season
Almere City FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Almere City FC away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.05 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.16 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Eindhoven at 68%, Almere City FC at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for FC Eindhoven and 74% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC Eindhoven's games and 74% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 74% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Almere City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Almere City FC 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.65 xG and Almere City FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 28%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 55%, Almere City FC 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Almere City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.