Excelsior 2-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Roda meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Roda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Excelsior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.11 xG and Roda 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Roda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.281. Data: 0 Excelsior games / 0 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 33% | Draw 28% | Roda 39%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Roda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 33% | Draw 28% | Roda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Excelsior 1.11 / Roda 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Roda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Roda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Roda xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Roda kick off?
Excelsior vs Roda kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Roda?
Excelsior 2 - 2 Roda.
Where is Excelsior vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Roda part of?
Excelsior vs Roda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 33% chance of winning, Roda a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Excelsior and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 2W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Roda in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.85) and Roda's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.85x) against Excelsior's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.60
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.37
1.25
Roda xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.25 for Roda, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Pre-Season
Roda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Roda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Excelsior 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Roda?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Excelsior and Roda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior and Roda finished level at 2-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.11 xG and Roda 1.25 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 33% | Draw 28% | Roda 39%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.