Excelsior 4-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 37%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and FC Volendam meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Excelsior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Volendam arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.70 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Excelsior's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Excelsior's games and 80% of FC Volendam's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Excelsior, 2 for FC Volendam and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Excelsior 1–3 FC Volendam — a FC Volendam win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 56% versus FC Volendam 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 65% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.43 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.764 / defence 1.119 | FC Volendam attack 0.885 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.340. Excelsior's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. Data: built from Excelsior's last 63 games and FC Volendam's last 63.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 32%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.69 | Draw 3.28 | FC Volendam 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (0.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Excelsior 1.43 / FC Volendam 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.764 / def 1.119 | FC Volendam attack 0.885 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Volendam xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs FC Volendam kick off?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 12 April 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Excelsior 4 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Excelsior vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs FC Volendam part of?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Excelsior and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.89x) against Excelsior's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 63 games and FC Volendam's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.28
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.76
1.33
FC Volendam xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.33 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Excelsior have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 13W 15D 35L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 14W 13D 36L from 63 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Excelsior against 0.87 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 9D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 10D 19L from their last 31 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.14 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
Excelsior (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Excelsior vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 15D 35L in their last 63 games (0.86 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 13D 36L in their last 63 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or FC Volendam away?
Excelsior's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.26 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Excelsior and FC Volendam, the earliest from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won Excelsior 4-0 FC Volendam on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Excelsior
3
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 5, FC Volendam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 58%, FC Volendam 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Excelsior and 64% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Volendam in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and FC Volendam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Excelsior's games and 68% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Excelsior and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Excelsior's matches and 64% of FC Volendam's.
Do Excelsior and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Excelsior's recent matches and 77% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat FC Volendam 4-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.43 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 37% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 32%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 65%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 0.86 PPG, FC Volendam 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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