Cambuur 1-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Cambuurstadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 4W 0D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.71 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.14 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.57 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 3W 0D 1L at Cambuurstadion — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.71 — Cambuur are significantly better at Cambuurstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 2W 0D 4L from 6 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 1.83. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.71 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.71 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 50% versus AZ Alkmaar 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 83% | AZ Alkmaar 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.24 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.190 / defence 1.127 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.906 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.451. AZ Alkmaar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Cambuur games / 6 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 55% | Draw 20% | AZ Alkmaar 25%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | AZ Alkmaar 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 75% | AZ Alkmaar 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cambuurstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 55% | Draw 20% | AZ Alkmaar 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Cambuur 2.24 / AZ Alkmaar 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.190 / def 1.127 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.906 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.48
AZ Alkmaar xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Cambuurstadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Cambuur 1 - 3 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Cambuurstadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 55% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 2.57 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.83 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.19) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
55%
1.83
20%
4.96
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.72
1.48
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
11%
9.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
3%
37.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.48 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 0D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Cambuur are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.83 scored and 1.83 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 6 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Cambuur's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 3.00 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cambuur or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cambuur's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
1
Draws
3
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 67%, AZ Alkmaar at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Cambuur and 100% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 100% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cambuur's matches and 100% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Cambuur 1-3 at Cambuurstadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.24 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.48 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 55% | Draw 20% | AZ Alkmaar 25%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a AZ Alkmaar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 83%, AZ Alkmaar 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with AZ Alkmaar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.