Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
NAC Breda's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Almere City FC, 0.60 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, NAC Breda edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Almere City FC 0–1 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus NAC Breda 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | NAC Breda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.43 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.685 / defence 1.369 | NAC Breda attack 0.722 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.270. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.685 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. NAC Breda's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.369 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NAC Breda's projected output up. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 59 games and NAC Breda's last 25.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 41% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 33%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.43 | Draw 3.88 | NAC Breda 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 40% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 41% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Almere City FC 1.43 / NAC Breda 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.685 / def 1.369 | NAC Breda attack 0.722 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
NAC Breda xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kick off?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 14 March 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda part of?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 41% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Almere City FC and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.69) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.72x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 59 games and NAC Breda's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.88
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
NAC Breda xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.26 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 10W 18D 31L from 59 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 22L across 59 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 5W 8D 15L from their last 28 home games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 9W 5D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.54 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 10W 18D 31L in their last 59 games (0.81 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.82 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 1, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 46%, NAC Breda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almere City FC) and 61% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 39% of games; NAC Breda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and NAC Breda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 54% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almere City FC and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Almere City FC's matches and 61% of NAC Breda's.
Do Almere City FC and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 71% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and NAC Breda finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.43 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.37 against NAC Breda attack 0.72 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 41% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 33%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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