Willem II 3-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Willem II welcome Vitesse to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 1.70 PPG versus Vitesse's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Willem II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Willem II hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Vitesse, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Willem II winning.
The historical record gives Willem II a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Vitesse in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and Vitesse 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.29 xG and Vitesse 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.821 / defence 0.879 | Vitesse attack 0.941 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Data: 26 Willem II games / 65 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Vitesse 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Willem II 1.29 / Vitesse 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.821 / def 0.879 | Vitesse attack 0.941 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Willem II (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Vitesse xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Vitesse kick off?
Willem II vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Vitesse?
Willem II 3 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Willem II vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Vitesse part of?
Willem II vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 37% chance of winning, Vitesse a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Willem II and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 3W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 0W.
What form are Willem II and Vitesse in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.82) and Vitesse's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.43
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.52
1.23
Vitesse xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Willem II and 1.23 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 16D 30L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (20W 20D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.09 PPG, Vitesse on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Willem II's home form reads 10W 6D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (7W 11D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.45 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Vitesse in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 18W 16D 30L in their last 64 games (1.09 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 20W 20D 24L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Vitesse away?
Willem II's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.16 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Vitesse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Willem II have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Willem II won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Willem II
0
Draws
0
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 4, Vitesse have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Vitesse?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 61%, Vitesse 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Willem II and 68% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Willem II's games and 61% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Willem II's matches and 68% of Vitesse's.
Do Willem II and Vitesse tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Vitesse 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.29 xG and Vitesse 1.23 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Vitesse attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.09 PPG, Vitesse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.