Willem II 2-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Roda at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Willem II have gone 6W 4D 0L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Willem II have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 2.20 PPG versus Roda's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Willem II have won 2, Roda 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Willem II 1–0 Roda — a Willem II win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus Roda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 61% | Roda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.48 xG and Roda 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.133 / defence 0.830 | Roda attack 0.788 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.325. Roda bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Willem II's projected output down. Roda's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Willem II's last 64 games and Roda's last 64.
Result probabilities: Willem II 50% | Draw 30% | Roda 20%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.00 | Draw 3.37 | Roda 4.90. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Willem II 80% (last 10 home games) | Roda 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 50% | Draw 30% | Roda 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Willem II 1.48 / Roda 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.133 / def 0.830 | Roda attack 0.788 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Willem II (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Roda xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Roda FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Roda kick off?
Willem II vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Roda?
Willem II 2 - 3 Roda.
Where is Willem II vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Roda part of?
Willem II vs Roda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 50% chance of winning, Roda a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Willem II and Roda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Willem II vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.13) and Roda's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 64 games and Roda's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.37
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.35
0.87
Roda xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
5%
21.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Roda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Willem II and 0.87 for Roda, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II's recent record stands at 36W 17D 11L from 64 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 23L across 64 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Roda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 22W 4D 5L from their last 31 home games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 8W 9D 14L across their last 31 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.45 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Roda
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs Roda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Willem II vs Roda Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Roda in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 36W 17D 11L in their last 64 games (1.95 PPG), while Roda have gone 26W 15D 23L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Roda away?
Willem II's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.26 PPG; Roda away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Willem II or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Roda in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Roda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Roda?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 3, Roda have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Willem II and Roda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Roda 0-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Roda?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 64%, Roda 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Willem II) and 42% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Roda in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Roda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Roda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Willem II's games and 48% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and Roda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Willem II's matches and 42% of Roda's.
Do Willem II and Roda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Willem II's recent matches and 74% of Roda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Willem II 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Willem II 2-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.48 xG and Roda 0.87 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Roda attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 50% | Draw 30% | Roda 20%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Roda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 61%, Roda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Roda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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