Willem II 1-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 5 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Willem II haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 4W 2D 4L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong PSV U21 haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Willem II, 0.90 for Jong PSV U21 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 41% versus Jong PSV U21 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | Jong PSV U21 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.46 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.995 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.435. Data: 0 Willem II games / 38 Jong PSV U21 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Willem II 34% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 42%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Jong PSV U21 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 30% | Jong PSV U21 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 34% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Willem II 1.46 / Jong PSV U21 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.995 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Jong PSV U21 xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Willem II 1 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 34% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Willem II and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Jong PSV U21 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Willem II's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.99x) against Willem II's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.21
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.10
1.64
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
7%
15.07
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Willem II and 1.64 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 9W 6D 19L from 34 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. Willem II haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 14L across 34 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five. Jong PSV U21 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Willem II against 1.18 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 4W 4D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.68 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Pre-Season
Jong PSV U21
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 games (0.97 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Willem II's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.41 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Willem II
2
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 2, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Willem II 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 35%, Jong PSV U21 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Willem II) and 65% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 41% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Willem II's recent matches and 65% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Willem II's matches and 65% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Willem II and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Willem II and Jong PSV U21 drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.46 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.64 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 34% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 42%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Jong PSV U21 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.97 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.