Willem II 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Jong AZ at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 6W 3D 1L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 1.60 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 45% versus Jong AZ 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | Jong AZ 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.22 xG and Jong AZ 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.819 / defence 0.917 | Jong AZ attack 1.116 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.337. Data: 6 Willem II games / 45 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 33% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 40%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 40% | Jong AZ 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 33% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Willem II 1.22 / Jong AZ 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.819 / def 0.917 | Jong AZ attack 1.116 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Jong AZ xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong AZ kick off?
Willem II vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Willem II 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Willem II vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong AZ part of?
Willem II vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 33% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Jong AZ in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.82x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.67
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.59
1.37
Jong AZ xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Willem II and 1.37 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 9D 20L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ's form line: 12W 7D 21L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.05 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 4W 4D 12L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.23 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 11W 9D 20L in their last 40 games (1.05 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong AZ away?
Willem II's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.55 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2025, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Willem II
1
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 4, Jong AZ have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Jong AZ?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 40%, Jong AZ 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Willem II) and 55% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 35% of games; Jong AZ in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Willem II's recent matches and 45% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Willem II's recent games and 55% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong AZ 1-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.22 xG and Jong AZ 1.37 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Jong AZ attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 6/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 33% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 40%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Jong AZ 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.05 PPG, Jong AZ 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.