VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host De Graafschap at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VVV Venlo at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG, De Graafschap 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, VVV Venlo have won 2, De Graafschap 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 58% versus De Graafschap 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 60% | De Graafschap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.778 / defence 0.970 | De Graafschap attack 1.272 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.318. VVV Venlo's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 VVV Venlo games / 74 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 45%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.22. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 60% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG VVV Venlo 1.29 / De Graafschap 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.778 / def 0.970 | De Graafschap attack 1.272 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.62
De Graafschap xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kick off?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap part of?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 30% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VVV Venlo and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): VVV Venlo 2W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.78) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
30%
3.28
24%
4.11
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.92
1.62
De Graafschap xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
6%
16.66
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.62 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 74 games, going 29W 15D 30L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.39 PPG from 74 outings (28W 19D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.38 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 12W 11D 14L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.43 points per game from 37 outings (15W 8D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 29W 15D 30L in their last 74 games (1.38 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 28W 19D 27L in their last 74 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.27 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.43 PPG.
Have VVV Venlo or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, De Graafschap have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 60%, De Graafschap 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for VVV Venlo and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 35%; VVV Venlo have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of VVV Venlo's games and 57% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of VVV Venlo's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do VVV Venlo and De Graafschap tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat De Graafschap 2-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.62 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against De Graafschap attack 1.27 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 45%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, De Graafschap 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.38 PPG, De Graafschap 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.