VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host De Graafschap at Seacon - De Koel in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo at Seacon - De Koel this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VVV Venlo 1.10 PPG, De Graafschap 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, VVV Venlo have won 5, De Graafschap 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 50% and De Graafschap 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 60% | De Graafschap 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.71 xG and De Graafschap 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.071 / defence 1.187 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.637. Data: 40 VVV Venlo games / 40 De Graafschap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 35% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 43%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 60% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 35% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG VVV Venlo 1.71 / De Graafschap 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.071 / def 1.187 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.637 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.91
De Graafschap xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kick off?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kicked off at 14:45 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Seacon - De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap part of?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both VVV Venlo and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
Record (9 meetings): VVV Venlo 5W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (1.07) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.85
22%
4.59
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.62
1.91
De Graafschap xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
15%
6.74
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
5%
19.18
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.91 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 6D 20L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (17W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.20 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 8W 2D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.92 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 75%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 14W 6D 20L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.30 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 6, De Graafschap have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 45%, De Graafschap 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for VVV Venlo and 65% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of VVV Venlo's games and 75% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VVV Venlo's matches and 65% of De Graafschap's.
Do VVV Venlo and De Graafschap tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat De Graafschap 2-1 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.71 xG and De Graafschap 1.91 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 35% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 43%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, De Graafschap 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG, De Graafschap 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.