VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as VVV Venlo welcome Almere City FC to Seacon - De Koel. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Seacon - De Koel, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VVV Venlo at 1.60 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of VVV Venlo: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Almere City FC, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VVV Venlo and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 51% versus Almere City FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 63% | Almere City FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.65 xG and Almere City FC 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.150 / defence 0.897 | Almere City FC attack 1.175 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 VVV Venlo games / 43 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 42%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 50% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG VVV Venlo 1.65 / Almere City FC 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.150 / def 0.897 | Almere City FC attack 1.175 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.702 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Almere City FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Seacon - De Koel.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC part of?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 36% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both VVV Venlo and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
Record (8 meetings): VVV Venlo 5W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
36%
2.79
22%
4.46
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.45
1.79
Almere City FC xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.77
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.79 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 6D 21L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 43 outings (22W 6D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 10W 2D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 22 outings (10W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.05 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 16W 6D 21L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.45 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 46%, Almere City FC 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for VVV Venlo and 73% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of VVV Venlo's games and 77% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of VVV Venlo's matches and 73% of Almere City FC's.
Do VVV Venlo and Almere City FC tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.