Telstar 0-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host ADO Den Haag at BUKO Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Telstar — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's home record at BUKO Stadion: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.86 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BUKO Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 4W 2D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. ADO Den Haag are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Telstar in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 60% versus ADO Den Haag 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 60% | ADO Den Haag 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.42 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.027 / defence 1.591 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.983 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. Data: 15 Telstar games / 15 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 21% | Draw 19% | ADO Den Haag 60%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 4.76 | Draw 5.26 | ADO Den Haag 1.67. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 2.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 86% | ADO Den Haag 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 21% | Draw 19% | ADO Den Haag 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 69% | xG Telstar 1.42 / ADO Den Haag 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.027 / def 1.591 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.983 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
2.43
ADO Den Haag xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Telstar 0 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 21% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 60% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Telstar and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and ADO Den Haag in?
Telstar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 2.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
21%
4.69
19%
5.31
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.85
2.43
ADO Den Haag xG
4.69
21%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
9%
11.37
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
2%
53.38
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Telstar and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Telstar and 2.43 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 5D 6L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.86 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Telstar or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Telstar's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Telstar
4
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when ADO Den Haag 0-1 Telstar.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 86%, ADO Den Haag 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Telstar) and 57% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Telstar's games and 43% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Telstar's matches and 57% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Telstar and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Telstar 0-2 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.42 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.43 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.03 / defence 1.59 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 21% | Draw 19% | ADO Den Haag 60%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 60%, ADO Den Haag 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.