Roda 0-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 2W 3D 3L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VVV Venlo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Roda's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus VVV Venlo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 73% | VVV Venlo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.55 xG and VVV Venlo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.022 / defence 1.179 | VVV Venlo attack 0.504 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. VVV Venlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Roda games / 16 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 26% | VVV Venlo 22%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | VVV Venlo 4.55. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 62% | VVV Venlo 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 26% | VVV Venlo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Roda 1.55 / VVV Venlo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.022 / def 1.179 | VVV Venlo attack 0.504 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Roda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.92
VVV Venlo xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Roda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Roda 0 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Roda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs VVV Venlo part of?
Roda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 52% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Roda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Roda's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.50x) against Roda's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.91
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Roda xG
Total xG
2.47
0.92
VVV Venlo xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Roda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Roda and 0.92 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 4D 5L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (6W 0D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Roda against 1.20 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VVV Venlo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 6W 0D 9L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or VVV Venlo away?
Roda's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.29 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Roda or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 7 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Roda
6
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Roda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 57%, VVV Venlo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 57% (VVV Venlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Roda's recent matches and 43% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 57% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Roda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and VVV Venlo finished level at 0-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.55 xG and VVV Venlo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against VVV Venlo attack 0.50 / defence 1.24, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 52% | Draw 26% | VVV Venlo 22%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 73%, VVV Venlo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.47 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.