Roda 1-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Roda (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 4W 4D 2L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 0.80 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Roda, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Roda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus Jong Utrecht 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 57% | Jong Utrecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.19 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.091 / defence 0.908 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.635 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.405. Data: 51 Roda games / 51 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 69% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 13%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Jong Utrecht 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Roda (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 40% | Jong Utrecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 69% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 49% | xG Roda 2.19 / Jong Utrecht 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.091 / def 0.908 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.635 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Roda (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Jong Utrecht xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Roda 1 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Roda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 69% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Roda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (8 meetings): Roda 6W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.09) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.64x) against Roda's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.36
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Roda xG
Total xG
3.00
0.81
Jong Utrecht xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
11%
8.89
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
1%
70.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Roda and 0.81 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 20W 14D 17L from 51 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 29L across 51 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 12W 7D 6L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 5D 18L across 25 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.92 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 20W 14D 17L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 14D 29L in their last 51 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.72 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Roda
2
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 44%, Jong Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Roda) and 60% (Jong Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Roda's recent matches and 52% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Roda's recent games and 60% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Roda and Jong Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.19 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.81 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 69% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 13%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 57%, Jong Utrecht 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.