Roda 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Volendam have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC Volendam are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Roda 0W, FC Volendam 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and FC Volendam 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 52% | FC Volendam 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.83 xG and FC Volendam 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.048 / defence 0.696 | FC Volendam attack 1.300 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.429. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Roda's defence rating of 0.696 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Roda games / 16 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 3.85. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 30% | FC Volendam 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Roda 1.83 / FC Volendam 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.048 / def 0.696 | FC Volendam attack 1.300 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Volendam xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Volendam kick off?
Roda vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Volendam?
Roda 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Roda vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Volendam part of?
Roda vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Roda and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Roda and FC Volendam in?
Roda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Roda vs FC Volendam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.05) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.30x) against Roda's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.12
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Roda xG
Total xG
3.13
1.29
FC Volendam xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
4%
23.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Roda and 1.29 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 17D 10L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (14W 9D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.46 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 23W 17D 10L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Volendam away?
Roda's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.21 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Roda or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Roda
3
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Roda have won 0, FC Volendam have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when FC Volendam 3-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Roda, 83% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Roda and 75% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Roda's games and 83% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Roda's matches and 75% of FC Volendam's.
Do Roda and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Roda and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.83 xG and FC Volendam 1.29 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.05 / defence 0.70 against FC Volendam attack 1.30 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 49% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 52%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.